GREY ZONE WARFARE
The supremacy of traditional security and defense systems has driven adversaries towards alternative methods. These ‘grey zone’ approaches include a myriad of new threats described by multiple buzzwords, from asymmetric to hybrid and from 5th generation to sub-threshold. All these make up the “grey zone” and explore the widest range of social, political, economic and military instruments available to achieve maximum effect - but without provoking a conventional response, or even being recognized as formal acts of aggression.
Countering this requires significant change in a number of areas – from risk appetite, to the equipment used, and the skills employed. Technology will play an increasing role in how nations adapt their existing capabilities to fit the way in which adversaries now behave.
In general, grey zone activities involve purposefully pursuing political objectives through carefully designed operations; moving cautiously towards goals rather than seeking decisive results quickly; acting to remain below key escalatory thresholds so as to avoid war; and using all instruments of national power.
The United States is being confronted with the liabilities of its strengths. Given the significant costs of engaging the United States in combat, and the growing range of indirect and non-military tools at their disposal, rivals are seeking ways to achieve relative gains without triggering escalation. From fake news and online troll farms to terrorist financing and paramilitary provocations, these approaches often lie in the contested arena somewhere between routine statecraft and open warfare—the “gray zone
The gray zone phenomenon is also referred to as hybrid threats, sharp power, political warfare, malign influence, irregular warfare, and modern deterrence. Although it reflects an age-old approach, it is newly broad in its application. Today, the toolkit for coercion below the level of direct warfare includes information operations, political coercion, economic coercion, cyber operations, proxy support, and provocation by state-controlled Forces. China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, as well as non-state actors, are increasingly turning to these strategies to overcome U.S. strengths in global diplomacy, law, and commerce.
Competition in the gray zone is an underdeveloped area of U.S. strategy, planning and synchronization of action, despite its wealth of advantages. CSIS’s International Security Program has analyzed these threats and how the United States can best deter, campaign in, and respond to gray zone approaches.
Grey zone warfare commonly refers to power being employed to achieve national objectives in a way that falls short of physical conflict.
Such warfare is conducted in the “grey zone” of conflict, meaning operations may not clearly cross the threshold of war. That might be due to the ambiguity of international law, ambiguity of actions and attribution, or because the impact of the activities does not justify a response.
Our increasing connectivity and reliance on information technology is a vulnerability that is being targeted by two key threats: cyber attacks, and the subversion of our democratic institutions and social cohesion. Both are recognized challenges to our national security.
These are “hybrid threats” as they may be employed as part of a broader campaign – including political, criminal and economic activities. And because they feature the ambiguity associated with the grey zone, they are well suited to achieve political outcomes without resorting to traditional conflict.
While cyber attacks are carried out by a variety of actors, there is an ongoing low intensity cyber conflict between nation states. This includes attacks and counter-attacks on critical infrastructure, such as power grids, between the US and Russia.
But, as suggested by General Campbell, this needs to change. More needs to be done to develop our national ability to coordinate efforts to counter a hybrid campaign.
The Grey Zone Warfare term may be in vogue, and its continuing use is uncertain. But Grey Zone Warfare, with its various forms, is here to stay due to its obvious benefits to the actor employing it: deniability and exploiting the legal grey zone.
While the term might be interpreted by some as a matter for the military, there are many aspects that require a coordinated national effort if we are to preserve our freedoms and interests. In that regard, Senator Reynolds made a very important point in her speech last week:
It is vital that we bring all of our sources of national power to bear on this problem, not just those of Defense.
In general, grey zone activities involve purposefully pursuing political objectives through carefully designed operations; moving cautiously towards goals rather than seeking decisive results quickly; acting to remain below key escalatory thresholds so as to avoid war; and using all instruments of national power, particularly non-military and non-kinetic tools, such as cyber warfare.
Japan’s worry is that if Chinese air activities go unchallenged, other countries may gradually come to accept China’s claims over Japan’s.
Grey zone actions don’t just happen. China, for example, has implemented a well orchestrated campaign approved and controlled by the highest levels of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Grey zone actions are not those of tactical commanders freelancing. They are purposefully constructed to side-step military escalation – crafted as a form of carefully scripted brinkmanship.
Given its long duration, the United Nations maritime entitlements case in the South China Sea has become the poster child of Chinese Grey Zone Activities. In 2013, Rear Admiral Zhang Zhaozhong explained how China, in a meticulously timed sequence, first sends fishing ships into disputed territory, then fisheries patrol vessels, then Coast Guard ships and finally PLA Navy warships. This is the so-called ”cabbage strategy”, where islands are surrounded layer by layer so that other nations’ ships are progressively prevented from gaining access.
Today, this strategy includes extra players: the armed maritime militia, military aircraft, government survey vessels and oil rig platforms, all operating in conjunction with social media campaigns, radio misdirection, cyber warfare and GPS interference. The strategy can also be scaled up to suit circumstances: the Whitsun Reef incident in March 2021 involved more than 200 Chinese fishing vessels.
THINGS YOU MAY NOT KNOW: Meaning of Grey Zone Warfare in English:
Activities by a state that are harmful to another state and are sometimes considered to be acts of war, but are not legally acts of war: The grey zone between war and peace has grown considerably and is gaining speed and dominance as of this writing.
THINGS YOU WANT TO SAVE: USA Dominance in Critical Intelligence to save the world: As Grey Zone Warfare cripples our economics, destroys our electrical grid and shuts down the entire internet, closes all of the banks …and leaves our monetary system completely destroyed… we cant afford to sit idly on the sidelines. We need an action plan…and we need one now!
ZENTRAVELER SAYS: Grey Zone Warfare not only has a longtime history, but is gaining ground as the new way to dominate the world…without firing one-shot? There is nothing they wont use which includes: cyber-warfare, AI intelligence gathering, robotic warfare, psychometric warfare, disinformation warfare, chemical warfare, biological warfare, dark side social hackers, alien technology and the devil himself.
From here to Infinity is a relatively short ride! The next leg takes eons and eons as you fly through the Barycentric Dynamical Time Zone! …and on and on and on. Follow the Zentraveler Newsletter often for Travel, Health and Zen-like stories and such. Where else can you get a three in one Newsletter For The Price of FREE?